I GET TICKLED...

...when I read stuff like this from NASA.

New Solar Cycle Prediction

An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

Now, I am one of those "global warming" deniers. I have believed for most of my "paying attention" life that the Earth is heading into a long period of cooling...an ice age. But what gets me tickled is the fear-mongering that can go on. The report states:

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.

Y'all read that? Even though the solar cycle is gonna peak far below normal, we're still fried! $1 to $2 trillion of our infrastructure is gonna be wiped out. Heck, why not $10 to $20 trillion? I mean, if you're gonna warn, warn BIG!

And can somebody please tell me what the heck Hurricane Katrina damage totals (the great bulk of which were "man-made" damages) have to do with anything? Will everybody be beating that drum for the rest of my mortal life? But I digress. The report goes on:

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

None of their models were correct? Shazzaaaaaam! There is a true shocker.

And: Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.

Imagine that! The Sun went silent for 70 years, and all the scientists are still "baffled" as to why. By the way, the Mauder Minimum coincided with the middle of (and the coldest period) of The Little Ice Age. Imagine that! The Sun went quiet, and it got cold...real cold. Whodathunkit?

You can read the whole thing, but the way it ends says it all:

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

The question I have about all of this is WHY? The Sun is gonna do what it's gonna do, and no amount of forewarning is going to make one scintillas (y'all didn't know I knew that word, did ya?) difference...especially when the forewarning is more than likely just crap...sorry, I meant a crap shoot.

I'm sure that on some intellectual level it is interesting to ponder whether the Sun is gonna cut up, or sit still. I guess there are folks that need jobs...and these scientists get paid to make inaccurate predictions, suppose what might happen, and write reports.

But what difference will it make? Should the cyber-world start taking up a collection to save up for replacing all the junk that the Sun is gonna screw up in 2013? Should the electric companies, and phone companies buy "solar flare, or sun-spot" insurance?

To conclude that a lower than normal "peak" in solar activity is just as frightening as when that bad boy is really shooting sparks, and to warn of impending disaster is JUST. PLAIN. STUPID!